油料周报-20251109

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the oilseed market, Sino-US trade relaxation leads to China's plan to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans, causing a rebound in US soybean prices and cost - driven support for soybean meal prices. However, sufficient domestic port soybean inventories and weak demand from the aquaculture industry limit the upside of soybean meal prices. The rapeseed meal market has a generally loose supply - demand situation, with uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports supporting prices, while the end of the aquaculture demand peak season weakens demand support [7]. - For the oil market, US soybean price rebounds support soybean oil prices, but high oil mill operating rates, increasing inventory, and falling crude oil prices put pressure on soybean oil prices. Palm oil has significant supply pressure due to high production in major producing areas and weak demand. Canola oil has a tightening supply due to uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports and falling domestic rapeseed arrivals, with its decline being relatively small [39][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal - Price Influencing Factors: US soybean price rebounds due to Sino - US trade relaxation, supporting soybean meal prices. However, sufficient domestic port soybean inventories and weak demand from the loss - making aquaculture industry limit price increases [7]. - Profit and Supply: Oil mill crushing profits need to be repaired, and mills have a strong willingness to support prices. But high domestic port soybean inventories create supply pressure [7]. 2. Rapeseed Meal - Supply - Demand Situation: The overall supply - demand is loose, with limited rapeseed meal crushing volume. The low - level soybean - rapeseed meal price difference suppresses substitution demand [7]. - Price Support: Uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports support prices, while the end of the aquaculture demand peak season weakens demand support [7]. 3. Soybean Oil - Positive Factors: The rebound of US soybean futures prices supports soybean oil futures prices [39]. - Negative Factors: High oil mill operating rates, the psychology of supporting soybean meal and selling off soybean oil, increasing inventory, and falling crude oil prices put pressure on soybean oil prices [39]. 4. Palm Oil - Supply: High production in Indonesia and Malaysia leads to sufficient inventory and significant supply pressure [39]. - Demand: Weak demand from India and potential delays in Indonesia's B50 plan, along with falling international oil prices and a strong US dollar, weaken market attractiveness [39]. 5. Canola Oil - Supply: Uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports and low domestic rapeseed arrivals lead to a tightening supply and continuous inventory reduction [42]. - Price Movement: It follows the decline of other oils in the short term, but its decline is smaller due to supply concerns and inventory reduction, while high domestic inventory and the decline of soybean and palm oils limit its rebound [42].