Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, copper prices slightly declined, with support from downstream concentrated price fixing at the 85,000 level. The slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals remain stable but weak. Attention should be paid to the industrial support at the 85,000 level [1]. - Aluminum prices have risen significantly, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market. The future supply - demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, being easy to rise but difficult to fall in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - The center of zinc prices has increased. The supply side shows a tightening trend, and the demand side is weak. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak, and with the Indonesian policy having a certain price - supporting motivation, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [9]. - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of secondary production and the increase in warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin prices are oscillating. The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term state of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuate widely. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [16]. - The short - term fundamentals of nickel are weak. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end and price - supporting motivation from the policy end, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Market Data: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, the premium and discount changed, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1425 tons. The LME inventory also increased, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 575 tons [1]. - Market Analysis: This week, copper prices slightly declined, and the market's view of next year's demand is not pessimistic. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals are stable but weak. The 85,000 level may be the psychological price for downstream price fixing [1]. Aluminum - Price and Market Data: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots changed, and the domestic alumina price decreased slightly. The inventory in the Shanghai aluminum exchange decreased by 239 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 850 tons [2]. - Market Analysis: The long - term reduction of Iceland's electrolytic aluminum production is confirmed, and the expectation of production reduction of other capacities is rising. Aluminum prices have risen significantly, and the future supply - demand may remain in a tight balance, but the actual performance may be disappointing [2]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the center of zinc prices increased. The domestic and imported TC decreased rapidly, and the LME inventory increased by 800 tons [5]. - Market Analysis: The supply side shows a tightening trend, and the demand side is weak. The export window has opened, and there is some inventory delivery overseas. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. Stainless Steel - Price and Market Data: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [9]. - Market Analysis: The supply has increased slightly, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remains at a high level. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [9]. Lead - Price and Market Data: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, lead prices oscillated at a high level. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2583 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 1800 tons [12]. - Market Analysis: The supply side has some relief in the supply - demand contradiction, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [12]. Tin - Price and Market Data: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, tin prices oscillated. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [15]. - Market Analysis: The supply side has marginal improvement, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid demand. The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term state of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Market Data: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the basis of industrial silicon in different regions changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 101 [16]. - Market Analysis: The production in the northwest region is basically stable, and the supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Market Data: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. The upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the futures - cash spread has changed [16]. - Market Analysis: In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [16]. Nickel - Price and Market Data: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, nickel prices changed slightly. The domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase [19]. - Market Analysis: The supply side has a slight decline in pure nickel production, the demand side is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [19].
永安期货有色早报-20251110
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-10 01:04