沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251110

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The nickel market is expected to be in a long - term oversupply situation, with the nickel price of contract 2512 likely to fluctuate weakly and test the cost support [2]. - The stainless - steel market of contract 2512 is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - Price Movement: Last week, the nickel price fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. On November 7, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 120,900 yuan, up 400 yuan from the previous day [2][12]. - Fundamentals: Nickel ore prices are firm as the rainy season in the Philippines approaches, and sea freight is stable. Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the cost line moves down. New nickel production capacity is put into operation while some production is cut, with short - term output possibly decreasing but long - term supply remaining strong. The new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost to the nickel market is limited [2]. - Key Indicators: The basis is 1,460 yuan, indicating a bullish factor. LME inventory is 253,104 tons with no change, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 32,634 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - Price Movement: The spot stainless - steel price remained flat on November 7. The average stainless - steel price was 13,550 yuan, and the basis was 985 yuan [4][12]. - Fundamentals: Short - term nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight is stable, nickel - iron prices decline, and the cost line moves down further. Stainless - steel inventory has a slight increase [4]. - Key Indicators: The futures warehouse receipts are 72,091 tons, a decrease of 371 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4]. Inventory - Nickel Inventory: As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37,187 tons, with the futures inventory at 32,634 tons, an increase of 436 tons and 1,246 tons respectively. The total inventory was 285,738 tons, a decrease of 55 tons [14][15]. - Stainless - Steel Inventory: On November 7, the Wuxi inventory was 599,000 tons, the Foshan inventory was 310,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,034,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,900 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 639,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,400 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 72,091 tons, a decrease of 371 tons [19][20]. Price of Raw Materials - Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 30 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The high - nickel wet - ton price was 916.5 yuan per nickel point, a decrease of 1.5 yuan, and the low - nickel wet - ton price was 3,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [23]. - Stainless - Steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost was 12,740 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 12,893 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,534 yuan [25]. - Nickel Import Cost: The converted import price was 120,401 yuan per ton [29].