大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251110

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report date: November 10, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [4]. - On October 30, China - US leaders met, with the US canceling some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspending 301 investigations in maritime and logistics fields for one year, and China adjusting counter - measures accordingly. OPEC + announced a suspension of production increase in Q1 2026, leading to oil price fluctuations [4]. - The peak - season demand for agricultural films continues with high - level operation, while inventory preparation for other films is gradually ending. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6800 (+50), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Other Indicators - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is - 2, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.0%, neutral [4]. - PE comprehensive inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), bearish [4]. - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4]. Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. With oversupply in fundamentals, fluctuating crude oil prices, and moderately high industrial inventory, PE is expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. Factors Influencing LLDPE - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Phased easing achieved in China - US talks [5]. - Bearish factors: Weak year - on - year demand; Many new projects put into production in Q4 [5]. - Main logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, in October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the China - US meeting and OPEC + production suspension also affected the market. The demand for plastic woven products is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6500 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Other Indicators - The basis of PP 2601 contract is 36, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.6%, bullish [6]. - PP comprehensive inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), bearish [6]. - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6]. - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [6]. Outlook - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Given oversupply in fundamentals, fluctuating crude oil prices, and moderately high industrial inventory, PP is expected to fluctuate weakly today [6]. Factors Influencing PP - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Phased easing achieved in China - US talks [7]. - Bearish factors: Weak year - on - year demand; Many new projects put into production in Q4 [7]. - Main logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - For LLDPE, the spot delivery product price is 6800 (+50), the 01 contract price is 6802 (- 3), etc. [8] - For PP, the spot delivery product price is 6500 (0), the 01 contract price is 6464 (- 7), etc. [8] Inventory Data - LLDPE: Warehouse receipts are 12,669 (0 change), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 540,000 tons, and social inventory is 510,000 tons [8]. - PP: Warehouse receipts are 14,629 (0 change), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 600,000 tons, and social inventory is 333,000 tons [8] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polyethylene showed different trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4,319,500 tons with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene also changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4,906,000 tons with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]