大越期货油脂早报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, causing setbacks to the export of new US soybeans and putting pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand is improving, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk factor is El Niño weather [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with production cuts falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production cut season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,372, with a basis of 258, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but it will enter the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,700, with a basis of 40, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period, a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,881, with a basis of 348, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The inventory-to-sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - 利空: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5].