PTA、MEG早报-20251110

Report Information - Report Title: PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 10, 2025 [1] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015557 [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Core Views PTA - In the near term, PTA plant operations have seen more changes, mostly planned. The spot market negotiation atmosphere is rather dull, mainly among traders with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis is running at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage range. Market sentiment is cautious. Prices are expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to plant operation changes [5]. MEG - Last week, the unloading of foreign MEG vessels was smooth, and it is expected that the visible inventory will increase significantly early next week. Some vessels are postponed, and the arrival plan around the middle of the month is still moderately high. The monthly import volume is expected to recover to around 680,000 tons. In terms of demand, the current polyester load is maintained at around 91.3%, and the rigid demand support is fair. The current port inventory is at a moderate level. In the short - term, prices may still adjust repeatedly due to factors such as plant operations and deliveries. However, in the long - term, the market will be under pressure due to the expected inventory build - up. Attention should be paid to cost - side changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No specific content provided in this regard. 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, November cargo was negotiated and traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4,550 - 4,580. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 78, indicating a neutral situation [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,572, and the 01 contract basis is - 92, with the futures price at a premium, a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: PTA plant inventory is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days, which is bearish [6]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated steadily, and the market negotiation was average. In the night session, ethylene glycol opened slightly higher and then strengthened rapidly. The high - level spot transaction reached around 4,045 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market returned to a narrow - range fluctuation. The spot negotiation was traded at a premium of 68 - 72 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the basis of this week's spot weakened. In terms of US dollars, the external market of ethylene glycol adjusted at a high level. In the morning, recent shipments were negotiated at around 474 - 476 US dollars/ton, and then slightly declined to around 470 - 472 US dollars/ton in the afternoon. Some individual traders participated in buying at low levels. The domestic and foreign transaction negotiation ranges were 3,980 - 4,045 yuan/ton and 469 - 477 US dollars/ton respectively, a neutral situation [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,013, and the 01 contract basis is 71, with the futures price at a discount, a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 567,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,000 tons, which is bearish [8]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [8]. - Main Position: The main net short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. 3. Today's Focus - No specific content provided in this regard. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, production, PTA consumption, and other data showed different trends and growth rates. For example, in 2024, PTA production capacity gradually increased, and the supply - demand gap also changed [10]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, production, ethylene glycol consumption, and other data showed different trends and growth rates. For example, in 2024, ethylene glycol production capacity gradually increased, and the supply - demand gap also changed [11]. Price - On November 7, 2025, compared with November 6, 2025, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers showed different degrees of changes. For example, the spot price of naphtha increased by 9 US dollars/ton, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 416.488 yuan/ton [12]. Inventory Analysis - The inventory of PTA plants, MEG ports, PET slices, and other products showed different trends from 2021 to 2025. For example, the PTA plant inventory showed a certain degree of change in the number of available days [40]. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - The start - up rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms showed different trends from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. Profit and Processing Fee - The processing fee of PTA, the profit of MEG from different production methods, and the production profit of polyester fibers showed different trends from 2022 to 2025 [59][61].