焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-10）-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views For Coking Coal - Affected by environmental protection and safety inspections, coking coal supply has contracted, and downstream rigid - demand procurement has led to a continuous decline in coal mine inventories. With the improvement of coke prices, coke enterprises' transportation enthusiasm has increased, and the overall inventory in the production area has decreased to a low level. The short - term support for coal prices is relatively strong [2]. - The spot price is 1430, with a basis of 160, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons compared to last week [2]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - Although downstream coke enterprises have a good demand for coking coal and their raw material coal inventory is low, considering the low profit of steel mills and the decline in daily hot metal production, the rigid demand for raw materials has decreased, and large - scale replenishment is not strong. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2]. - Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include a slowdown in raw material coal procurement by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. For Coke - As the cost of coking coal for furnaces has risen strongly, the cost of coke enterprises has further increased. Some coke enterprises have reduced production due to losses. In addition, due to the orange warning for heavy pollution in Pingdingshan, Henan, and the large profit pressure in the coking industry, the short - term supply shortage of coke has intensified [5]. - The spot price is 1720, with a basis of - 36.5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - The total sample inventory of coke is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared to last week [5]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [5]. - The net short position of the coke main contract has increased [5]. - Currently, the inventory level of coke enterprises is not high, and some enterprises have increased their willingness to limit production due to losses, resulting in a tight supply of local coke resources. However, affected by the continuous weakness of terminal demand and the continuous contraction of steel mill profit margins, there will be a game between coke and steel enterprises in the short term. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [5]. - Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and a synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate; negative factors include the squeezing of steel mill profit margins and the partial overdraft of replenishment demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - On November 7 (17:30), the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Qingdao Port was 1570, and the price of first - grade metallurgical coke was 1670. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Tianjin Port was 1570, and the price of first - grade metallurgical coke was 1670. There were also price records for other ports and types of coke [8]. - On November 7 (17:30), the price of imported Russian coking coal such as K4 brand at Caofeidian Port was 1380, and there were price records for other brands and ports. The price of imported Australian coking coal such as Heishui brand at Caofeidian Port was 1330, and there were also price records for other brands and ports [9]. Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week [17]. - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week [21]. - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [26]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [39]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [43].