白糖早报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple institutions predict a shift from balance to surplus in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season, with Czarnikow raising the surplus forecast to 740 million tons and StoneX estimating a 277 million - ton surplus [5][8]. - In the short - term, international sugar prices are falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones, possibly due to high spot prices of new sugar. However, the long - term divergence between domestic and international trends is unsustainable. For 01 contracts approaching delivery, short - selling on 05 contracts at high prices is recommended for bears [5][8]. - The domestic sugar market has positive factors such as good consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of US cola. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new season, low international sugar prices leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raises the 25/26 global sugar surplus forecast to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicts a 277 million - ton surplus, and ISO forecasts a 23.1 million - ton supply gap, significantly reduced from the previous prediction. As of the end of August 2025, the 24/25 season's national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a 15 - million - ton increase year - on - year, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a 13.51 - million - ton decrease year - on - year. This is bearish [5]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5760, with a basis of 303 (01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August 24/25, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near it, which is neutral [5]. - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. - Expectation: Recently, international sugar prices are falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and international trends is unsustainable. For 01 contracts approaching delivery, short - selling on 05 contracts at high prices is recommended for bears [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market, with different surplus estimates. The domestic sugar supply and demand balance shows a narrowing gap in the medium - to - long - term [5][8]. - Price: The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - Import: In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a 15 - million - ton increase year - on - year, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a 13.51 - million - ton decrease year - on - year [5][8]. 3.5 Position Data - No detailed position data provided other than the information that the main positions are bearish and the net short positions are decreasing [5].