大越期货菜粕早报-20251110

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. Influenced by soybean meal and with uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tip - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but due to China - Canada trade issues, short - term exports are expected to decrease, reducing domestic supply. The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports by China has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict still has the possibility of rising, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports by China and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports by China. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 30 to November 7, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3026 to 3092, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 to 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2530 to 2650, and the trading volume was 0. The difference in the average transaction price of soybean and rapeseed meal ranged from 438 to 528. Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, and the spot price fluctuated accordingly. The spot premium fluctuated slightly. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated slightly. The import of rapeseed has no shipping schedule forecast in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills is at a low level, and the amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][17][19]. 5. Position Data - Not provided Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental analysis shows that rapeseed meal is oscillating and falling back, influenced by soybean meal and technical oscillations. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. The basis is 101, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed in. Rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate and fall back due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and with recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, it will return to an oscillating pattern in the short term [9].