大越期货纯碱早报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level, with the expected commissioning of Yuanying Phase II before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant overall supply. There are supply disturbance expectations for downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,155 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,210 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 55 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171,420 tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded from a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level for the same period [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Low - End Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,207 yuan/ton | 1,145 yuan/ton | - 62 yuan | | Current Value | 1,210 yuan/ton | 1,155 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.25% | 0.87% | - 11.29% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply 3.5.1 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit using the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. 3.5.2 Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67% [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 746,800 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 414,800 tons, and the production is at a historical high [20]. 3.5.3 Changes in Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity - In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned newly added production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually commissioned [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand 3.6.1 Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. 3.6.2 Downstream Demand for Soda Ash - Float glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% [27]. - Photovoltaic glass: The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [2][4]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171,420 tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash [35].