大越期货原油早报-20251110

I. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. II. Core Viewpoints - The oil price has been fluctuating slightly recently, and the market is waiting for more macro - event results. There is hope for the US government to reopen, which has alleviated some market concerns. Russia increased its crude oil production in October but remained below the OPEC+ limit. Hungary claimed to have obtained an indefinite US sanction exemption for using Russian oil and gas, which may weaken the support of Russian oil supply cuts on oil prices. The short - term outlook for crude oil is to wait and see, with the SC2512 contract expected to operate in the range of 455 - 465, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. - The short - term market is driven by strengthened geopolitical conflicts, while in the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of increased supply. The risk points include the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [6]. III. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For the crude oil 2512 contract, the fundamentals are neutral considering the US government shutdown negotiation progress, Hungary's sanction exemption, and Russia's production increase. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bearish as US API and EIA inventories increased significantly in the week ending October 31. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, indicating a neutral situation. The main positions in WTI and Brent crude oil show different trends, overall being neutral [3]. 2. Recent News - Hungary claimed to have obtained an indefinite US sanction exemption for using Russian oil and gas, contradicting the White House's statement of a one - year exemption. US Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a potential agreement to end the government shutdown is "being gradually reached", and a test vote may be held soon. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased by 2 in the week ending November 7 [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Likely Bullish Factors: Optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, cancellation of US - Russia talks leading to increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ suspending production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - Likely Bearish Factors: Easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering continued production increases [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: On November 7, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.37 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.67 per barrel. The basis was 36.43 yuan per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory Data: US API crude oil inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels). Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels in the week ending October 31. As of November 7, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.47 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - Futures and Spot Market Changes: In the futures market, the settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all decreased. In the spot market, the prices of various types of crude oil also declined, with different decline rates [7][9]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of September 23, the main position was long, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of November 4, the main position was long, and the number of long positions decreased [3]. - Fund Net Long Positions: The net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds showed different trends at different times from July to October [16][19].