大越期货豆粕早报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term US soybean market is supported by China's soybean purchases, but uncertainties in purchase volume and good harvesting weather limit its upside. The domestic soybean meal market is driven by US soybeans and maintains a range - bound pattern due to factors such as high - level arrivals of imported Brazilian soybeans and short - term demand being in the off - season [9]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the price of US soybeans. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price floor, while the high - level arrivals of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit its upside [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips No specific content provided in the text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather remain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark and awaits further guidance on soybean growth, harvesting, and Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills declined from a high level. Affected by the normal harvesting weather of US soybeans and the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing its price. The market is in a range - bound pattern under the cross - influence of US soybean trends and the off - season demand [13]. - The high - level inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas, and the Sino - US trade agreement have caused soybean meal to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - For soybean meal: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - For soybeans: Cost support from imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. Bearish Factors - For soybean meal: High - level arrival volume of imported soybeans in November and the expected high yield of US soybeans due to the harvest and good weather [14]. - For soybeans: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price is 3000 (in East China), with a basis of - 58, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 18, showing a neutral situation. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal (M2601) - It is expected to oscillate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The market is affected by the trend of US soybeans, with demand in the short - term off - season and the spot price discount limiting the upward movement of the futures price. The overall view is neutral [9]. Soybeans (A2601) - It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The market is influenced by the price of US soybeans, with the cost of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand supporting the price floor, while high - level arrivals of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic production limit its upside. The overall view is neutral [11].