甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the current situation remains poor, with the shutdown in Iran slower than expected, high imports likely in November, difficulties in resolving the 01 contract issues, expected resolution of port sanctions before the end of gas restrictions, difficult inventory reduction, limited upward momentum, and the downward space depending on the inland situation. Recent coal price increases do not affect profits [2]. - For polyethylene, the overall inventory is neutral, the 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, the external market in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia is stable, the import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now, the non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are volatile, LD is weakening, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream and middle - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, the import profit is around -700, exports are good this year, the PDH profit is around -400, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure in the context of over - capacity, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is extensive [6]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, the downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong, the mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating, attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, the recent export orders have slightly decreased, the cost is stable, and attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [6]. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, the daily change of Jiangsu spot price was 4, the daily change of South China spot price was 5, the daily change of Lunan converted to the market price was 12, and the daily change of CFR China was -1 [2]. - Market Situation: The actual situation is poor, the shutdown in Iran is slower than expected, high imports are expected in November, the 01 contract issue is difficult to resolve, port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, inventory reduction is difficult, and the upward momentum is limited [2]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 740, the daily change of North China LL price was 10, and the daily change of the import profit was -1 [6]. - Market Situation: The overall inventory is neutral, the 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, the external market is stable, the import profit is around -200, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased by 50, the daily change of East China PP price was 40, and the daily change of the主力期货 price was -7 [6]. - Market Situation: The upstream and middle - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, the import profit is around -700, exports are good this year, the PDH profit is around -400, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure [6]. PVC - Price Data: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shandong caustic soda price increased by 5, the daily change of the East China电石 - based price was 5, and the basis remained at -70 [6]. - Market Situation: The basis remains at 01 - 270, the downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, the mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating, attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, and the recent export orders have slightly decreased [6].