大越期货沪铝周报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Report's Core View - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated. The main contract rose 1.53%, closing at 21,625 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the carbon neutrality goal, long - term capacity control, weak demand due to domestic real - estate suppression, cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US tariff increase on steel and aluminum all have a negative impact on domestic aluminum prices. The domestic demand has entered the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. Last week, LME inventory was 549,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 239 tons to 113,335 tons [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated. The main contract rose 1.53%, closing at 21,625 yuan/ton on Friday. The domestic demand has entered the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. Last week, LME inventory was 549,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 239 tons to 113,335 tons [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Table - The supply - demand balance table of aluminum in China shows that from 2018 - 2024, there were supply shortages in 2018 (- 476,000 tons), 2019 (- 686,100 tons), 2021 (- 142,000 tons), 2022 (- 299,800 tons), and 2023 (- 43,000 tons), and a supply surplus in 2020 (13,000 tons) and 2024 (150,000 tons) [10] 2.2 Other Aspects in Fundamentals - The report also mentions aluminum, bauxite, alumina, and aluminum rods, but specific content is not elaborated in detail [6] 3. Market Structure 3.1 Futures - Spot Price Difference - No specific content provided [24][25] 3.2 Import Profit - No specific content provided [24][28]