大越期货纯碱周报-20251110

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.22% lower than the previous week at 1,210 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week. The supply had minor fluctuations due to equipment issues in some enterprises, and the overall supply was abundant with the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II by the end of the year. The downstream demand was average, and the inventory was at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remained weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View - Futures: The main contract SA2601 of soda ash futures closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous week [3]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week [3]. - Supply: There were short - term reductions due to equipment problems in some enterprises, but the overall output had minor adjustments. The expected output next week was 740,000 tons, and the operating rate was 85%. Yuangxing Energy's Phase II was expected to be commissioned by the end of the year, with abundant overall supply [3]. - Demand: The downstream demand was general, and the funds were under pressure. The daily melting volume of float glass was 159,100 tons, a decrease of 2,140 tons from the previous week; the daily output of photovoltaic glass was 88,100 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons [3]. - Inventory: As of November 6, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory was at a historically high level [3]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Likely to Rise: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [5]. - Likely to Fall: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year. The industry output is at a historically high level. The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash [6]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Quotes - Futures: The main contract SA2601 closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous week [8]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week [8]. - Basis: The main basis remained unchanged at - 55 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5 Fundamental - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that of East China's co - production process was - 212 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - Operating Rate and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.67%, and the weekly output was 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level [20][22]. - Production Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were continuous new production capacity projects in the soda ash industry, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 million tons, and 100,000 tons were actually commissioned in 2025 [25]. 3.6 Fundamental - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 98.36% [28]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,100 tons, and the operating rate was 75.92% [31]. 3.7 Fundamental - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.8 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The document provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39].