大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. The price of nickel ore remained firm, the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching, the tender price was firm, and the ocean freight was stable. The price of nickel iron continued to decline, and the cost line loosened and moved down. The inventory of stainless steel increased slightly, and the de - stocking after the "Golden September and Silver October" was tested again. There was new production capacity of primary nickel put into operation, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of production cut. The short - term output might decline, but the supply was still strong in the medium and long term, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly and test the cost support downward. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Nickel Viewpoint: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. The price of nickel ore remained firm, the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching, the tender price was firm, and the ocean freight was stable. The price of nickel iron continued to decline, and the cost line loosened and moved down. The inventory of stainless steel increased slightly, and the de - stocking after the "Golden September and Silver October" was tested again. There was new production capacity of primary nickel put into operation, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of production cut. The short - term output might decline, but the supply was still strong in the medium and long term, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - Operation Strategy: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly and test the cost support downward. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel Ore: The price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% remained at 56, and the price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained at 50, with a 0.00% change [13]. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 28400 to 28200, a decrease of 0.70%. The price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained at 29700, with a 0.00% change [13]. - Nickel Iron: The price of low - nickel iron (Shandong) remained at 3400, with a 0.00% change. The price of high - nickel iron (Shandong) decreased from 935 to 925, a decrease of 1.07% [13]. - Electrolytic Nickel: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 123350 to 122360, a decrease of 0.80%. The price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 121450 to 120100, a decrease of 1.11%. The price of Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from 123100 to 123300, an increase of 0.16% [14]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 13712.5 to 13550, a decrease of 1.19% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - The price of nickel ore remained stable, and the ocean freight was the same as last week. - As of October 30, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.791 million wet tons, a decrease of 188,100 wet tons or 1.26% from the previous period. Among them, the nickel ore from the Philippines was 14.3054 million wet tons, a decrease of 199,200 wet tons or 1.37%. The nickel ore from other countries was 485,600 wet tons, an increase of 11,100 wet tons or 2.44%. - In September 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 232,200 tons or 3.66% from the previous month, and an increase of 1.5483 million tons or 33.91% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the total nickel ore import volume was 32.2481 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.77% [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - The nickel price fluctuated weakly, and the transaction improved. There was new production capacity put into operation at home and abroad, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of planned production cut. The long - term surplus contradiction was more prominent. - In October 2025, China's refined nickel output was 33,345 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38% and a year - on - year increase of 8.09%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative refined nickel output was 353,335 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 32.70%. - In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4181 tons or 17.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 22,779 tons or 407.65%. The net import of refined nickel this month was 14,255.276 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 207.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.65%. - The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained the same as last week [22][25][33]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - The price of nickel iron declined. The price of low - nickel iron remained flat, and the price of high - nickel iron decreased. - In September 2025, China's actual nickel pig iron production in terms of metal was 21,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64%. - In September 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 1.085 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 211,000 tons or 24.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 348,000 tons or 47.2%. - In September, the nickel iron inventory was 202,900 physical tons available for circulation, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [43][47][50]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased. The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 162.5 yuan/ton compared with last week. - In September, the stainless steel crude steel output was 3.4267 million tons, of which the output of 200 - series was 1.039 million tons, the output of 400 - series was 525,000 tons, and the output of 300 - series was 1.7627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. - The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. - As of November 7, the inventory in Wuxi was 599,000 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 310,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.034 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2900 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 639,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,400 tons [58][63][66]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% respectively. - In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The installed capacity of power batteries in China was 76.0 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 13.8 GWh, accounting for 18.2% of the total installed capacity, a month - on - month increase of 26.5% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 62.2 GWh, accounting for 81.8% of the total installed capacity, a month - on - month increase of 20.5% and a year - on - year increase of 50.4% [74][77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price began to be under downward pressure, breaking below the 120,000 level. The position increased, indicating that the main short - sellers were exerting force and were relatively bearish on the future. The MACD indicator also showed green bars spreading, indicating a downward trend. The KDJ entered the oversold area and might have a rebound demand. Overall, it will fluctuate weakly [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Sorting and Summary - Nickel Ore: Neutral. The quotation remained stable, the ocean freight was the same, and the rainy season was approaching [83]. - Nickel Iron: Neutral. The price of nickel iron decreased steadily, and the cost line decreased to a certain extent [83]. - Refined Nickel: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad [83]. - Stainless Steel: Neutral. The inventory increased slightly, and the 300 - series decreased slightly [83]. - New Energy: Neutral. The production data was good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased year - on - year [83].