大越期货PVC期货周报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 4,696 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,611 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. It is expected that the demand may remain sluggish next week. Meanwhile, the number of planned maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly. The market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.70%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 80.75%, a month-on-month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 345,350 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.89%, while the production of ethylene enterprises was 146,770 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.63%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production [5]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 37.61%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 39.4%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 71.79%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 78.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.370 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [5]. - Cost: The profit of calcium carbide method was -769.4 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase in losses of 0.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was -465.05 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease in losses of 14.00%, lower than the historical average. The double-ton spread was 2,239.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [6]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 334,596 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,396 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78%. Ethylene factory inventory was 84,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.63%. Social inventory was 545,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.20%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.5 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.65%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Price and Volume: The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. The report provides charts of price trends, trading volume, and open interest, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [13]. - Basis and Spread: The report presents charts of basis trends and spreads between different contracts, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is provided [10][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method: The report provides historical data charts of prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi-coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [19][22][24][26][29]. - Supply and Demand Trends: The report provides historical data charts of supply and demand indicators such as production, operating rates, trade volumes, pre-sales volumes, production and sales ratios, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [31][33][36][37][40]. - Inventory: The report provides historical data charts of inventory indicators such as exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [48]. - Ethylene Method: The report provides historical data charts of import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volumes, and price spreads in the ethylene method, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [50]. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides a monthly supply and demand balance sheet for PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including data on exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports [53]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Based on the price chart and moving average indicators, it is expected that the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [57][58].