大越期货白糖周报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. As it is approaching delivery and the spot price at the beginning of the listing is relatively high, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. - In the short term, the external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the white sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global white sugar production, the expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. The 01 contract is approaching delivery, and due to the relatively high spot price at the beginning of the listing, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose [8]. - Negative factors: Increase in global white sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. - Short - term situation: The external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Forecasts from different institutions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX expected a global sugar supply surplus of 277,000 tons; ISO expected a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous estimate [5]. - Domestic sugar production and sales data: By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season nationwide was 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales nationwide were 1,000 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - 25/26 global sugar supply and demand forecasts from multiple institutions: Different institutions have different views on the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation, with some predicting a surplus and some predicting a narrowing gap [5][37]. - China's sugar supply and demand balance sheet: It includes data on sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges for different seasons [39]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.