原油成品油早报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, with the increase higher than market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in on - board oil storage, and Russian oil is trading at its largest discount in the Indian market in nearly a year. European and American refinery profits rebounded this week. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Global fundamental surplus and sanctions factors support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil maintains a volatile pattern, expected to fluctuate in the range of $55 - 65 in Q4 [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily News - Hungary will be exempt from US sanctions for purchasing Russian energy. US President Trump met with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban on November 7, and the US government agreed to provide a one - year exemption for Hungary [3]. - Ukraine said Russia launched a large - scale attack on its energy infrastructure on the night of November 7 [3]. - Azerbaijan's BTC crude oil exports from Ceyhan Port in December are planned to be 17 million barrels, higher than 15.3 million barrels in November [3]. - Brazil's national oil company's oil production in October reached 2.6 million barrels per day, and it added 115,000 barrels per day through capacity upgrades [3]. - US President Trump will auction oil and gas exploration rights in the entire Gulf of Mexico next month [3]. - US energy company EOG expects low or zero growth in its oil production in early 2026 [4]. - Russia's crude oil production in October slightly rebounded to 9.411 million barrels per day but was still 70,000 barrels per day below its OPEC+ quota [4]. - ADNOC and OPEC officials believe that oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels per day after 2040, and geopolitics, trade flows, and sentiment will make fluctuations the norm [4]. - Russia's oil and gas revenue in October decreased by over 26% year - on - year but increased by 52.6% from the previous month due to additional profit tax [4]. - Swiss commodity trader Gunvor withdrew its proposal to acquire overseas assets of Russian energy company Lukoil after US opposition [4]. - Maersk's CEO said it's too early to determine when it's safe to pass through the Red Sea [5]. - China's crude oil imports in October increased by 8.2% year - on - year due to higher refinery operating rates, reaching 48.36 million tons or 11.4 million barrels per day [5]. 2. Inventory - In the week of October 31, US crude oil exports increased by 0.6 million barrels per day to 4.367 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 0.7 million barrels to 13.651 million barrels per day [6]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.25% increase [6]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.344 million barrels per day, a 1.15% decrease from the same period last year [6]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels, a 0.12% increase [6]. - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) in the week of October 31 were 5.924 million barrels per day, an increase of 873,000 barrels per day from the previous week [6]. - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in the week of October 31 was 300,000 barrels, down from 1.334 million barrels in the previous week [6]. - US EIA gasoline inventory in the week of October 31 decreased by 4.729 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels [6]. - As of the week of November 5, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 851,000 barrels to 18.607 million barrels, with light distillate inventory decreasing by 1.236 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreasing by 79,000 barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increasing by 2.166 million barrels [6]. - From October 31 to November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.5757 million tons, a 0.4% decrease, and diesel inventory was 12.8962 million tons, a 1.82% decrease [7]. 3. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices were volatile. OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased more than expected. Western sanctions led to high on - board oil storage, and Russian oil had a large discount in India. European and American refinery profits rebounded. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate between $55 - 65 in Q4 [7].