《能源化工》日报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber Industry - The natural rubber market may enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price fluctuations in a range. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, the price is expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish in the medium - long term, and short - term rebounds can be used as opportunities to go short. For glass, there are short - term trading opportunities for low - level rebounds, but the industry still needs capacity clearance [3]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory problem of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be priced in before Iranian gas restrictions [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may fluctuate between 6,200 - 6,800; PTA may range between 4,300 - 4,800; for ethylene glycol, hold short - call options and conduct reverse spreads; short - fiber has limited rebound space; bottle - grade polyester chips will follow cost fluctuations [8]. Polyolefin Industry - Polypropylene shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with inventory reduction, but the basis is weak. For polyethylene, the demand for agricultural films is strong, but attention should be paid to the potential impact of year - end foreign market inventory clearance [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and the market trend is bearish. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and prices should be shorted on rallies following oil prices. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight balance, but price drivers are insufficient, and the EB12 contract should be shorted on price rebounds [14]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: Yunnan state - owned whole - milk rubber in Shanghai rose by 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons; China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - Inventory Changes: Bonded area inventories increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons;上期所天然橡胶厂库期货库存 increased by 3,931 tons to 48,586 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: The glass 2601 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton; the 01 basis increased by 10 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton [3]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton; the 01 basis decreased by 3 yuan/ton to - 3 yuan/ton [3]. - Output and Capacity: The soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%; the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 161,300 tons [3]. - Inventory: Soda ash factory inventories increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons; glass factory soda ash inventories remained unchanged at 204,000 tons [3]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: The MA2601 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton; the太仓 basis decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventories increased by 10,400 tons to 386,410 tons; methanol port inventories increased by 10,600 tons to 1.517 million tons [5]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09%; the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 1.09% to 84.98% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil (January) increased by 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.32 dollars/barrel to 59.75 dollars/barrel [8]. - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: POY150/48 price increased by 45 yuan/ton to 6,560 yuan/ton; FDY150/96 price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 6,770 yuan/ton [8]. - PX - related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX increased by 0.1 dollars/ton to 826 dollars/ton; PX spot price (in RMB) decreased by 83 yuan/ton to 6,772 yuan/ton [8]. - PTA - related Prices and Spreads: PTA East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton; TA futures 2601 decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4,664 yuan/ton [8]. - MEG - related Prices and Spreads: MEG East China spot price increased by 41 yuan/ton to 4,013 yuan/ton; EG futures 2601 increased by 18 yuan/ton to 3,942 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefin Industry - Prices and Spreads: L2601 contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 6,802 yuan/ton; PP2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 6,574 yuan/ton [11]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventories increased by 74,200 tons to 490,000 tons; PP trade inventories increased by 8,600 tons to 229,000 tons [11]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6%; the PP device operating rate increased by 0.9% to 77.8% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Prices and Spreads: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to self - use price remained unchanged at 2,500 yuan/ton; V2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 4,915 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply - side Indicators: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3%; the PVC total operating rate increased by 4.5% to 77.1% [13]. - Demand - side Indicators: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2%; the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate increased by 1.2% to 89.7% [13]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventories increased by 36,000 tons to 223,000 tons; PVC total social inventories decreased by 10,000 tons to 545,000 tons [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Prices and Spreads: CFR China pure benzene increased by 1 dollar/ton to 664 dollars/ton; BZ futures 2603 decreased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,422 yuan/ton [14]. - Inventory: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventories increased; styrene Jiangsu port inventories decreased [14]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged at 78.8%; the styrene operating rate decreased by 1.4% to 75.1% [14].