氯碱周报：SH：下游压力传导压制烧碱价格，供应端压力加码价格缺乏支撑，V：供需过剩格局持续，价格难言乐观-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. With fewer maintenance enterprises, the total supply shows an increasing trend. The price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to weaken, and the industry's profit keeps shrinking with increasing losses. Thus, the support from the main demand side of caustic soda is weak, suppressing the price. In the short term, the caustic soda price lacks support. Although the middle and lower reaches may have phased replenishment needs after consuming their own inventories, the price is still under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. The non - aluminum market remains sluggish. It is expected that the caustic soda price will run weakly in the short term, and a bearish trend is advised, while tracking the downstream replenishment rhythm [2]. - PVC: The contradiction of oversupply has not improved. The pressure on the supply side continues to rise, the demand expectation weakens, and the cost - side support is insufficient. There is no positive macro - level expectation for the time being. Therefore, the price is expected to continue to decline. The main downstream fields such as real estate are still weak. The new orders of profile and pipe product enterprises are limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, which is difficult to provide continuous support to the market. There will still be an impact from new production capacity on the supply side from November to December. The demand from November to January of the next year is in the traditional off - season, and the overall real - estate demand will decrease, forming a negative impact. Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax in India is unclear, and exports are mainly on hold. The supply - demand is still in an oversupply pattern, and it is difficult to be optimistic about the price. Although the absolute price is low, it is difficult to form an upward driving force, and it is expected to continue the downward trend at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - Price and Market Situation: The caustic soda price is affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, alumina demand, and cost. The price has shown fluctuations, with periods of decline due to factors like increased supply and weak downstream demand, and short - term rebounds due to factors such as policy expectations and increased demand from alumina [6]. - Supply: The national average weekly weighted operating load rate of sample enterprises is 85.55%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from last week. The caustic soda output in terms of 100% strength this week is 82.53 tons, a 0.12% increase from last week. There are many ongoing maintenance of chlor - alkali plants this week, but some enterprises with under - capacity operation have increased their loads, resulting in a slight increase in output [25]. - Alumina Demand: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned production capacity of alumina is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [30]. - Alumina Market: Although the operating rate of some alumina enterprises in the north has decreased recently, the domestic supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively resolved, and the social inventory of alumina continues to increase. It is expected that the domestic alumina price will continue to run weakly in the short term, with a price range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [34]. - Bauxite: The bauxite price is stable, the port inventory fluctuates, and the enterprise raw - material inventory has increased significantly [38]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In October, the electrolytic aluminum production remained at a high level, and the in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased [44]. - Non - Aluminum Downstream: The operating rate of the printing and dyeing and textile industries has increased seasonally, and it is in the peak season. However, the overall non - aluminum downstream has not shown strong driving forces [49]. - Caustic Soda Export: In September, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. It is estimated that the export profit will decline in October [54]. PVC - Price and Market Situation: The PVC price has been on a downward trend due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity atmosphere. The price has been affected by factors such as macro - sentiment, supply - demand changes, and export conditions, with periods of sharp declines and short - term rebounds [61]. - Profit: The PVC industry has been in a state of continuous losses, with losses in both the calcium - carbide and ethylene - based production methods [67]. - Calcium Carbide: The calcium carbide production has increased month - on - month, but the profit has weakened [72]. - Supply: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry has increased this week. Although there are 4 new enterprises for maintenance or shutdown, the overall maintenance loss has decreased, and the industry operating rate has increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week is 79.28%, a 2.19 - percentage - point increase from last week [83]. - Downstream Demand: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate sector, with the goal of "de - inventorying and stabilizing prices", will continue to have a negative impact on demand. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and it is expected that the PVC downstream will not have positive drivers [93]. - Real - Estate Data: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and new - construction area showing weak performance [94]. - Inventory: The PVC inventory has remained flat recently, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [101]. - External Market: The external market price of PVC has weakened, and the export situation is affected by factors such as anti - dumping taxes in India [108]. - Export: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,400 tons, and the export volume was 346,400 tons. The export volume has increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [119].