Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, putting downward pressure on external palm oil prices. The Dalian palm oil is in a rebound phase after an over - decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - China will suspend retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products starting from the 10th, but US soybeans still face a 13% tariff, making them relatively expensive. There is no evidence of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, so CBOT soybeans lack the momentum to rise continuously. US biodiesel policy uncertainty affects the industrial use of US soybean oil, causing CBOT soybean oil to trade in a narrow range. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is abundant, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak and reach a five - year low. The domestic sugar market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas. There is an expectation of a delayed start of the sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, and the market consumption is mainly on - demand, with general trading volume. The sugar price is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [3]. Pork - The market's reluctance to sell and the increase in secondary fattening have supported the pig price to be slightly stronger. According to the planned November slaughter volume, the overall slaughter progress will slow down, which may boost the November pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. Cotton - The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated due to cost differences between northern and southern Xinjiang and pre - hedging of some new cotton. There is cost support at the lower level. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished - product inventory pressure is not large, and textile mills have a rigid demand for cotton. In the short term, the cotton price may trade in a range [7]. Corn - As the early high - moisture corn is released and the weather improves, farmers' willingness to sell is price - sensitive. Due to snow and transportation issues in the Northeast and price support in North China, the supply volume has decreased, and the price has rebounded locally. In November, there is still selling pressure from the concentrated supply of corn, but there is also cost and purchase - storage policy support. The demand side is cautious, and the corn price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may weaken when the selling pressure emerges [8]. Meal - The demand for US soybeans is not well - supported due to the 13% tariff, and it is difficult for US soybeans to continue rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The near - term shipping schedule has a negative crushing margin, and there is a 7.5 million - ton supply gap from November to January. The soybean meal price is expected to trade in a range [12]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens in November is expected to remain relatively stable at a high level, and the egg supply pressure persists. The terminal market demand is general, and the egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On November 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8390 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8188 yuan, and the basis was 206 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% to 26014 [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on November 7 was 8560 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8660 yuan, and the basis was - 100 yuan. The盘面 import cost was 9102.5 yuan, and the import profit was - 411 yuan [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on November 7 was 9800 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9533 yuan, and the basis was 267 yuan [1]. Sugar - Futures Market: On November 7, the price of SR2601 was 5457 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of SR2605 was 5397 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.13 cents/pound, down 0.63% [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and the basis was 383 yuan, up 5.80%. The spot price in Kunming was 5650 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the basis was 253 yuan, down 6.99% [3]. - Industry Situation: The national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60% [3]. Pork - Futures Market: On November 7, the price of LH2605 was 12005 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of LH2601 was 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 140 yuan, down 64.71% [5]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Henan was 11950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Shandong was 12050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Sichuan was 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Industry Situation: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 162310, up 1.03%. The weekly white - striped pork price was 0 yuan, down 100%. The weekly piglet price was 17 yuan/kg, down 15% [5]. Cotton - Futures Market: On November 7, the price of CF2605 was 13590 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of CF2601 was 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.48 cents/pound, down 1.44% [7]. - Spot Market: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14678 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The CC Index: 3128B was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13087 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [7]. - Industry Situation: The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10 million tons, up 42.9%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year was - 25% [7]. Corn - Corn: On November 7, the price of C2601 was 2149 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 375%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 92 yuan, down 2.22%. The import profit was 214 yuan, up 9.49% [8]. - Corn Starch: The price of CS2601 was 2462 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The basis was 48 yuan, up 17.07%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan, down 2.08% [8]. Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3058 yuan, down 0.33%. The basis was 2 yuan, up 125%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 43 yuan, up 295.5% [12]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 0.39%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2539 yuan, down 0.39%. The basis was 11 yuan, unchanged. The Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 757 yuan, up 3.27% [12]. Eggs - Futures Market: On November 7, the price of JD12 was 3219 yuan/500KG, down 0.25%. The price of JD01 was 3391 yuan/500KG, up 0.15%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, down 8.18% [15]. - Spot Market: The egg - laying hen farm price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 3.12%. The basis was - 196 yuan/500KG, up 33.66% [15]. - Industry Situation: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged. The price of culled chickens was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 1.95%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.38, up 1.28%. The breeding profit was - 24.44 yuan/feather, up 6.36% [15].
《农产品》日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-10 06:15