宏观经济周报-20251110

Group 1: China Macroeconomic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index has returned to the expansion zone, indicating sustained economic resilience and accumulating structural recovery momentum[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index has also risen to the expansion zone, reflecting active service consumption in travel, dining, and entertainment post-holiday[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index has slightly declined but remains in a mild contraction zone, primarily due to base effects from previous project launches[1] - The Production Sentiment Index has returned to the expansion zone, with a notable increase in enterprise operating rates and gradual recovery in manufacturing production[1] Group 2: Trade and Export Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, China's total goods trade value increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports remaining nearly flat[2] - General trade and processing trade have expanded simultaneously, accounting for over 80% of total trade, indicating stable foreign trade structure and enhanced endogenous momentum[2] - Trade with ASEAN countries grew by 9.1%, and trade with Belt and Road countries increased by 5.9%, highlighting a shift towards emerging markets[2] - The export structure shows that electromechanical products account for over 60%, with integrated circuits and automobile exports growing by 24.7% and 14.3% respectively, showcasing the impact of high-end manufacturing and technological innovation[2]