广发期货《有色》日报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are unlikely to drop significantly due to tight carbon element supply and reasonable valuation. Single - side trading of rebar and hot - rolled coils may test previous lows, with rebar focusing on the 2900 - 3000 range support and hot - rolled coils on around 3200 support. The strategy of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coils arbitrage can be continued [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. With steel prices weakening and steel mill profitability declining, iron ore demand will be weak. The overall production of the Simandou project is progressing faster than expected, and it is expected to complete the first shipment of iron ore to the port in October. The strategy is to short iron ore futures on rallies and recommend long coking coal and short iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated and declined last week. Although the third - round price increase was implemented and the fourth - round is expected to be implemented, coke production decreased due to losses, and demand was affected by environmental restrictions and weak steel prices. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 contracts on dips in the 1700 - 1850 range and long coking coal and short coke for arbitrage. Coking coal futures also oscillated and declined. The spot market was strong, but there were concerns about high prices. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 contracts on dips in the 1240 - 1350 range and long coking coal and short coke for arbitrage [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in North China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Rebar 05 contract price decreased by 7 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 11 yuan/ton. Steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and plate billet price remained unchanged. Profits of various steel products decreased [2]. Supply - Daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2 (a decrease of 0.9%), five - major steel product output decreased by 18.5 to 856.7 (a decrease of 2.1%), rebar output decreased by 4.1 to 208.5 (a decrease of 1.9%), and hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4 to 318.2 (a decrease of 1.7%) [2]. Inventory - Five - major steel product inventory decreased by 10.2 to 1503.6 (a decrease of 0.7%), rebar inventory decreased by 10.0 to 592.5 (a decrease of 1.7%), and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.9 to 410.5 (an increase of 0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 2.3 to 8.7 (a decrease of 21.0%), five - major steel product apparent demand decreased by 49.5 to 866.9 (a decrease of 5.4%), rebar apparent demand decreased by 13.7 to 218.5 (a decrease of 5.9%), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 17.6 to 314.3 (a decrease of 5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - Iron ore warehouse receipt costs of various varieties decreased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 7.7 to 836.3 (a decrease of 0.9%). 01 contract basis of some varieties changed, and spreads between different contracts also changed, like the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5 (an increase of 2.4%) [4]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 1189.3 to 3218.4 (an increase of 58.6%), global weekly shipments decreased by 174.6 to 3213.8 (a decrease of 5.2%), and the national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 (an increase of 10.6%) [4]. Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2 (a decrease of 0.9%), 45 - port daily average dispatch volume decreased by 15.5 to 320.9 (a decrease of 4.6%), national monthly pig iron output decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 (a decrease of 5.4%), and national monthly crude steel output decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 (a decrease of 5.0%) [4]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory increased by 184.8 to 14898.83 (an increase of 1.3%), 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 160.1 to 6600.6 (an increase of 1.8%), and 64 steel mills' inventory available days remained unchanged at 21.0 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased. For example, coke 01 contract price decreased by 20 to 1757 (a decrease of 1.14%), and coking coal 01 contract price decreased by 21 to 1270 (a decrease of 1.6%). Some spot prices remained unchanged, while some coking coal prices decreased slightly, like Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) price decreased by 11 to 1362 (a decrease of 0.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 1.0 to 63.6 (a decrease of 1.5%) and 247 steel mills' daily average output decreasing by 0.1 to 46.1 (a decrease of 0.34%). Coking coal production also decreased slightly, with raw coal output decreasing by 3.4 to 848.4 (a decrease of 0.4%) and clean coal output decreasing by 2.0 to 433.0 (a decrease of 0.5%) [7]. Demand - 247 steel mills' hot metal output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2 (a decrease of 0.94%), and coke demand decreased as a result [7]. Inventory - Coke total inventory decreased by 13.0 to 887.1 (a decrease of 1.4%), with inventories in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. Coking coal inventory increased in some places and decreased in others. For example, Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 0.8 to 80.4 (a decrease of 0.9%), while all - sample coking plants' coking coal inventory increased by 17.5 to 1070.0 (an increase of 1.7%) [7].