大越期货沥青期货周报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract of asphalt showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 3,253 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 3,048 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 6.30%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will decrease, and the cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply Side: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the domestic asphalt sample capacity utilization rate was 31.8792%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 308,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.79%. The sample enterprise output was 532,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 745,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22.53%. Refineries reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected that supply pressure will continue to ease next week [5]. - Demand Side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 10.4226%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.61 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, a month-on-month increase of 1.00 percentage point, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month-on-month increase of 4.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 576.02 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4.10%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 799.3871 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 34.46%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that short - term support will strengthen [6]. - Inventory Side: Social inventory was 897,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.26%. Factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.42%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20.00%. Social, factory, and port inventories are all decreasing [6]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Base - Spread Trend: The report presents the base - spread trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [10][12]. - Spread Analysis - 主力合约价差: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [14][15]. - 沥青原油价格走势: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [18]. - 原油裂解价差: The report shows the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent), but no specific data analysis is provided [21][22]. - 沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势: The report shows the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [26]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - 各地区市场价走势: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [28]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - 沥青利润: The report shows the profit trend of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [30]. - 焦化沥青利润价差走势: The report shows the profit - spread trend between coking and asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [33][34]. - Supply Side - 出货量: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [36]. - 稀释沥青港口库存: The report shows the port inventory of diluted asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [38]. - 产量: The report shows the weekly and monthly output of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [41]. - 马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势: The report shows the price trend of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [46]. - 地炼沥青产量: The report shows the output of refinery asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [49]. - 开工率: The report shows the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [51]. - 检修损失量预估: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [54]. - Inventory - 交易所仓单: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt, including total, social, and factory warehouses, but no specific data analysis is provided [57][59]. - 社会库存和厂内库存: The report shows the social and factory inventories of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [62]. - 厂内库存存货比: The report shows the inventory - to - stock ratio of factory inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided [65]. - 进出口情况: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt, as well as the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [68][71] - Demand Side - 石油焦产量: The report shows the output of petroleum coke, but no specific data analysis is provided [74]. - 表观消费量: The report shows the apparent consumption of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [77]. - 下游需求: The report shows the downstream demand trends of asphalt, including highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion, but no specific data analysis is provided [80][81]. - 下游机械需求走势: The report shows the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working - hour trends of excavators, but no specific data analysis is provided [85][87]. - 沥青开工率 - 重交沥青开工率: The report shows the开工率 trend of heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [89]. - 按用途分沥青开工率: The report shows the开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt by usage, but no specific data analysis is provided [92]. - 下游开工情况: The report shows the开工 rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [95][97]. - 供需平衡表: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, showing data such as monthly downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output from January 2024 to November 2025 [100]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected to experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [105].