《有色》日报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel industry, the steel market shows that mills continue to cut production, hot metal declines, apparent demand drops, and inventory reduction slows. The cost support of iron elements is weak, while that of carbon elements is strong. The steel price is unlikely to fall significantly, and the long - coking coal and short - hot rolled coil arbitrage can be held. The unilateral prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test previous lows [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. Due to the weak steel price, the profitability of mills is declining, which will force the iron ore market to be weak. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures fluctuated downward last week. The supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed a downward trend last week. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3095 yuan/ton, 3132 yuan/ton, and 3034 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [2]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, all down 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3254 yuan/ton, 3276 yuan/ton, and 3245 yuan/ton respectively, all down 11 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China are all down [2]. Supply - The daily average hot metal output is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the output of five major steel products is 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (-2.1%); the rebar output is 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (-1.9%); the hot - rolled coil output is 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (-1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (-0.7%); the rebar inventory is 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (-1.7%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.7 tons, down 2.3 tons (-21%); the apparent demand of five major steel products is 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (-5.4%); the apparent demand of rebar is 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (-5.9%); the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (-5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders all show declines, and the basis of the 01 contract has different changes. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indexes such as the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe all decline [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 3218.4 tons, up 1189.3 tons (58.6%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3213.8 tons, down 174.6 tons (-5.2%); the national monthly import volume is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons (10.6%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 320.9 tons, down 15.5 tons (-4.6%); the national monthly pig iron output is 6604.6 tons, down 374.7 tons (-5.4%); the national monthly crude steel output is 7349.0 tons, down 387.8 tons (-5.0%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory at 45 ports is 14898.83 tons, up 184.8 tons (1.3%); the imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills is 6600.6 tons, up 160.1 tons (1.8%); the inventory available days of 64 mills is 21 days, unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) are unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decline, and the coking profit is down [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, down 1.0 ton (-1.5%); the daily average output of 247 mills is 46.1 tons, down 0.1 ton (-0.34%) [7]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.94%) [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 887.1 tons, down 13 tons (-1.4%); the coke inventories of coking plants, mills, and ports all decline [7]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap is -3.7 tons, down 0.1 ton (-2.2%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) are unchanged, while the prices of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) and coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decline. The sample coal mine profit is up [7]. Supply - The raw coal output is 848.4 tons, down 3.4 tons (-0.4%); the clean coal output is 433.0 tons, down 2.0 tons (-0.5%) [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coking production, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showing declines [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 80.4 tons, down 0.8 tons (-0.9%); the coking coal inventories of coking plants and ports increase, while those of mills decrease [7].