广发期货《能源化工》日报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - Spot Prices and Basis: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - Monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - Fundamentals: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - Inventory Changes: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Related Prices and Spreads: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - Production Volumes: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - Inventory: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - Methanol Prices and Spreads: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - Prices: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - Supply: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - Demand: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - Inventory: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].