大越期货钢矿周报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel and ore prices weakened. After the macro - impact subsided, the market focus returned to fundamentals. The lack of improvement in terminal consumption directly hit the black - metal industry chain. Both steel products showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand continued to decline, which dampened market confidence. Notably, iron ore weakened significantly this week. The negative feedback from the weak terminal demand was finally transmitted to iron ore, with a large accumulation of port inventories and a significant drop in molten iron production, resulting in iron ore performing weaker than steel products. Looking ahead, given the unfavorable domestic policies and external export conditions, terminal demand is unlikely to improve. The report maintains the view that the pattern of the off - peak season during the peak period for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore market will remain weak [57] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - One - week Data Changes: PB powder price decreased from 803 yuan/wet ton to 773 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 30 yuan; Ba Hun powder price decreased from 840 yuan/wet ton to 814 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 26 yuan. PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 15.51 yuan/wet ton to - 9.32 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 6.19 yuan; Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from 8.41 yuan/wet ton to 19.75 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 11.34 yuan. Australia's shipments to China decreased from 1625.3 tons to 1544.8 tons, a decrease of 80.5 tons; Brazil's shipments decreased from 925.1 tons to 856 tons, a decrease of 69.1 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 15272.93 tons to 15624.13 tons, an increase of 351.2 tons; imported iron ore arrival volume increased from 2084.3 tons to 3314.1 tons, an increase of 1229.8 tons; imported iron ore port clearance volume increased from 331.22 tons to 335.55 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons. Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 79.6 tons to 125.8 tons, an increase of 46.2 tons; daily molten iron production decreased from 236.36 tons to 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons; steel enterprise profitability rate decreased from 45.02% to 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19 percentage points [6] 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - One - week Data Changes: Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3230 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton, a drop of 40 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3330 yuan/ton to 3260 yuan/ton, a drop of 70 yuan. Blast furnace operating rate increased from 81.75% to 83.13%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points; electric furnace operating rate decreased from 68.83% to 67.03%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points. Rebar blast furnace profit increased from - 57 yuan/ton to - 39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan; hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from - 114 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 139 yuan/ton to - 164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. Weekly rebar production decreased from 212.59 tons to 208.54 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil production decreased from 323.56 tons to 318.16 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons. Weekly rebar social inventory decreased from 430.81 tons to 425.7 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons; weekly rebar enterprise inventory decreased from 171.71 tons to 166.84 tons, a decrease of 4.87 tons. Weekly hot - rolled coil social inventory increased from 328.93 tons to 333.02 tons, an increase of 4.09 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil enterprise inventory decreased from 77.66 tons to 77.43 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons. Weekly rebar apparent consumption decreased from 232.19 tons to 218.52 tons, a decrease of 13.67 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil apparent consumption decreased from 331.89 tons to 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.59 tons. Building materials trading volume decreased from 89930 tons to 87098 tons, a decrease of 2832 tons [29][31] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - Operating Rates: Blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates are presented, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing and the electric furnace operating rate decreasing this week [29] - Production Volumes: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Chinese steel enterprises shows a decreasing trend [29] - Profits: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces increased, while the profit of rebar in electric furnaces decreased [29] - Inventories: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, while the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased and the enterprise inventory decreased [31] - Apparent Consumption: The weekly apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [31] - Trading Volumes: The trading volume of building materials decreased [31] - Export Volumes: The monthly export volume of steel products in China is presented [53] - Real Estate Indicators: The report shows the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, etc. [54][55] - Manufacturing PMI: The monthly value of the manufacturing PMI in China is presented [56]