建信期货国债日报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. Considering that the central bank has started bond purchases, the bottom of treasury bond futures is supported. Coupled with the slowdown in economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again. It is advisable to pay attention to next week's economic activity data and the central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations and seize the opportunity to layout on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Today's weak export data and the A-share market's rise and then fall had limited support for the bond market. With the central bank's continuous net withdrawal of funds in recent days, the liquidity tightened slightly, and treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities rose. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8070%, up 0.6bp [8][9]. - Funding Market: At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the liquidity tightened marginally. Today, there were 3551 billion yuan of open - market operations due, and the central bank injected 1417 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2134 billion yuan. This was the fifth consecutive day of net withdrawal this week. The inter - bank funds sentiment index rose slightly, indicating marginal tightening of liquidity. Among them, the weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits among banks rose slightly by 1.5bp to 1.33%, the 7 - day rate fell slightly by 1.24bp to 1.413%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.63% [10]. - Conclusion: Since June, various domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken. In particular, the investment side has accelerated its decline, and the export, which was the main support for the economy, also turned negative in October. The combination of falling exports and weak domestic demand still poses significant pressure on the economic fundamentals. Currently, the central bank is implementing loose monetary and fiscal policies. The resumption of treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. Referring to past experience, the credit - easing effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - Foreign Trade Data: On November 7, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in October, China's exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with a growth of 8.3% in the previous period; imports increased by 1%, compared with a growth of 7.4% in the previous period; the trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars, compared with 904.5 billion US dollars in the previous period [13]. - Central Bank Operations: The central bank released the liquidity injection situation of various tools in October, showing a net injection of 20 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading. This means that the treasury bond trading operation that was suspended since January this year has resumed, which is conducive to releasing liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. In addition, the central bank announced that it would conduct a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on November 5 [13]. - US Economic Situation: The severe employment situation in the United States has led to an increase in expectations of an interest - rate cut. Revelio Labs reported that the number of non - farm payrolls in the United States decreased by 9100 in October, compared with an increase of 33000 in the previous month. In addition, the number of job cuts by Challenger Gray & Christmas in the United States in October reached 153100, a year - on - year surge of 175.3%, the highest level for the same period since 2003. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December exceeds 70%. The continuous shutdown of the US federal government has led to the suspension of the release of official inflation data, causing some Federal Reserve officials to worry about the future direction of monetary policy [13][14]. - Real Estate News: Recently, many real - estate enterprises have made significant progress in debt restructuring. As of now, 21 troubled real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved or completed, with a total debt - resolution scale of about 1.2 trillion yuan, which will greatly relieve the short - term public debt repayment pressure of these enterprises. Industry insiders believe that the approval of debt restructuring and reorganization of troubled real - estate enterprises will accelerate the process of clearing real - estate risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on November 7, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6].