贵金属日评-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metals need to consolidate to digest the previous sharp rise, but in the medium - term, factors such as global central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the accelerated restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide liquidity premiums, safe - haven demand, and reserve diversification demand for precious metals. Investors are advised to maintain a long - biased trading approach and observe the support level of London gold at $3800 - 3850 per ounce. The medium - level bull market for precious metals since March 2024 has not ended, and it is expected that in the next six months and one year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - Intraday Market: From October 28th to the present, London gold has been trading sideways in the range of $3880 - $4050 per ounce. The narrowing trading range indicates an imminent short - term price breakthrough. In the short - term, precious metals need to adjust, while in the medium - term, they are supported by multiple factors. Investors are advised to hold a long - biased view and watch the support at $3800 - $3850 per ounce [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Market: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 923.97, up 0.39%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,505, up 0.49%; Gold T + D closed at 917.27, down 0.03%; Silver T + D closed at 11,480, up 0.52% [5]. - Medium - term Market: Since March 2024, the medium - level bull market for precious metals has not ended. It is expected that in the next six months and one year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. After the significant decline in precious metal prices since late October, some of the adjustment risks have been released. Investors should pay attention to the technical and fundamental signals for re - entering long positions [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Cleveland Fed President Harker believes that high inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed's further rate cuts, and she is concerned that current monetary policy may not be effective in dealing with inflation. - US President Trump admitted that US consumers are paying higher prices due to his tariff policies, although he still claims that the policy benefits Americans overall. - The Bank of England kept its interest rate at 4.0%, but the close vote and signs that Governor Bailey may soon support rate cuts increase the possibility of a rate cut in December after the government's budget announcement. - After the US imposed new sanctions on major Russian oil producers, Indian and Chinese refiners reduced their purchases, leading to the largest discount of Russian oil prices in Asia compared to Brent crude in a year [17].