建信期货豆粕日报-20251110

Report Overview - Report Date: November 10, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - After the Sino - US agreement, domestic soybean meal has returned to the CBOT soybean cost - pricing model, and the price transmission chain between China and the US has been re - established. Due to cost increases and low crushing profits, the support at the bottom of soybean meal is relatively strong. In the context of strong policy uncertainty, treat soybean meal with short - term cautious optimism. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost increase expectation caused by China's small - scale purchase of US soybeans later [6] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Trading Suggestions - Market Data: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3065, the highest price was 3070, the lowest price was 3034, the closing price was 3058, down 12 or - 0.39%, with a trading volume of 951,916 and an open interest of 1,577,123, an increase of 8,927. Similar data is provided for the 2603 and 2605 contracts [6] - International Market: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract at 1110 cents. After the Sino - US agreement in late October, the US expected China to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons per year for the next three years. However, with a 13% tariff on US soybean imports, it is more cost - effective for Chinese oil mills to import Brazilian soybeans, and it is difficult to achieve the purchase targets. The US government shutdown makes it impossible to verify China's purchase situation, and uncertainties are high [6] 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The reports were not released in October due to the government shutdown. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 [7] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentine farmers started sowing soybeans for the 2025/26 season. Most farmland soil moisture is in the "optimal" state. The exchange expects Argentina to harvest 48.5 million tons of soybeans this year, and farmers have sown 4.4% of the expected 17.6 million hectares [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The data sources for various figures (such as soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of soybean meal 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate) are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14]