瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the HC2601 contract rebounded with reduced positions. Amidst the global economic restructuring and China's economic transformation, the manufacturing industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality - efficiency". The weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased, but the capacity utilization rate remained above 81%. Apparent demand dropped to around 3.15 million tons, and inventory stopped falling and started to rise. Overall, hot - rolled coil production remained high, and apparent demand declined. However, with the recent continuous decline in futures prices and the easing of Sino - US tariff issues boosting market confidence. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at low levels. The recommended operation is to go long in the intraday session, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,252 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] - HC main contract open interest: 1,346,071 lots, down 19,517 lots [2] - HC contract top 20 net open interest: - 51,618 lots, up 5,525 lots [2] - HC1 - 5 contract spread: - 11 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange daily warehouse receipt: 127,028 tons, down 894 tons [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 208 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - HC main contract basis: 48 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 771 yuan/wet ton, down 2 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 148.9481 million tons, up 3.5557 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 361,500 tons, down 12,900 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.2656 million tons, down 23,200 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 1.2 million tons, up 4,300 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.15%, up 1.42 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 87.79%, down 0.80 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production: 3.1816 million tons, down 54,000 tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 81.28%, down 1.37 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 774,300 tons, down 2,300 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 3.3302 million tons, up 40,900 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel production: 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner production: 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [2] - Household refrigerator production: 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units [2] - Household washing machine production: 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On November 9, 2025 local time, the US Trade Representative's Office (USTR) announced a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation and related measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, effective from 12:01 am on November 10, 2025, Eastern Time [2] - Many places in Hebei lifted the heavy pollution weather emergency response on November 9 due to improved meteorological conditions and enhanced pollutant diffusion capacity [2]