Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the current period, with sufficient supply of raw material butadiene and a continuous decline in negotiation prices, the cost side has been dragging down negatively. Both the inventories of production enterprises and sample trading enterprises have decreased. Some devices will restart this week, and supply is expected to increase slightly. However, due to the expected increase in domestic future supply, the cost side of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation of firm price - pressing by downstream terminals is difficult to change, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises may increase slightly. In terms of demand, last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises' devices are operating stably this week, and it is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2601 contract is expected to be between 10,000 - 10,500 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 85; the position of the main contract is 83,698, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,988. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no change [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,300 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,300 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,350 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 85. Brent crude oil is 63.63 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.25; naphtha CFR Japan is 581.75 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 740 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10; WTI crude oil is 59.75 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.32; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons/week, with a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 118; the weekly social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 25,770 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,430 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 3,520 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 160 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.23 days [2] Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.37%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. In October 2025, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly in October. As of November 6, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15% [2]
瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20251110
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-10 09:33