Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For corn, as the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the recent rise in US soybeans and wheat provides external support. In the domestic market, the main producing areas are still releasing sales pressure, but as multiple market entities build storage and the central reserve increases purchases, the circulation of grain sources slows down, and some deep - processing enterprises have raised purchase prices. The corn market has shown a slightly stronger trend recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply of raw material corn is abundant, and the industry's operating rate is rising due to improved processing profits, increasing supply - side pressure. However, downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed down slightly, and inventory has increased marginally. The corn starch market has oscillated and risen in tandem with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2164 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 86 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 966186 hands, down 10833 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 0 hands, up 118210 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 66351 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 344 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2479 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 7 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 226343 hands, up 261 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 0 hands, up 58773 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 12453 hands [2]. Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 426.75 cents/bushel, down 2 cents; the total holding volume is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2243.33 yuan/ton, up 4.8 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2036.72 yuan/ton, up 1.2 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 42 US dollars/ton; the basis of the main contract is 79.33 yuan/ton, down 10.2 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton; in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton; in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract is 31 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 524 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2485.33 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 322 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 235 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 427.11 million tons, up 1.85 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 32 million tons. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 74.2 tons, up 13.5 tons; at northern ports is 122 tons, up 14 tons; the monthly import volume is 6 tons, up 2 tons [2]. - Corn starch: The monthly export volume is 12780 tons, down 2020 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 113.8 tons, up 1 ton; the weekly increase rate is 0.89%, the monthly increase rate is 0.89%, and the year - on - year increase rate is 33.26% [2][3]. Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly output is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 24.88 days, up 0.78 days; the weekly consumption of deep - processing corn is 138.18 tons [2]. - Corn starch processing: The processing profit in Shandong is 42 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Hebei is 124 yuan/ton; in Jilin is 94 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is down 1.63%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 62.77%, up 3.91% [2]. Option Market - For corn, the 20 - day historical volatility is 9.88%, up 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.66%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 8.53%, up 0.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.52%, up 0.57% [2]. Industry News - The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts that the global grain production in 2025 will reach a record 2.99 billion tons, a 4.4% increase from 2024. All major grain productions will increase, with corn having the largest increase and rice the smallest. Corn and rice production are expected to hit new highs [2]. - As of November 2nd, the US corn harvest is 83% complete, up from 72% a week ago [2].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251110
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-10 09:33