瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20251110

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to cause the precious metals market to decline. The sharp rise in gold and silver prices today may be due to the short - term liquidity buffer provided by the temporary appropriation bill and the continuous weakening of the U.S. dollar index after breaking through the 100 mark, which boosts the monetary attribute of precious metals. The continuous weakening of the U.S. dollar is expected to boost the precious metals trend, but the optimistic expectation of the government shutdown may weaken the market's safe - haven demand and resist the upward movement of gold prices. Technically, there is a short - term callback risk, and specific price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts are given [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 935.98 yuan/gram, up 14.72; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11719 yuan/kilogram, up 235 [3]. - Positions: The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 136657 hands, down 3; those of Shanghai silver are 243217 hands, down 2300. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 110522 hands, up 5914; those of Shanghai silver are 101886 hands, down 3302 [3]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 89616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 609978 kilograms, down 13074 [3]. 3.2现货市场 - Prices: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 928.1 yuan/gram, up 12.15; the spot price of silver is 11607 yuan/kilogram, up 161 [3]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.88 yuan/gram, down 2.57; that of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 112 yuan/kilogram, down 74 [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: Gold ETF holdings are 1042.06 tons, up 1.71; silver ETF holdings are 15088.63 tons, down 25.4 [3]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions are 266749 contracts, up 339; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions are 52276 contracts, up 738 [3]. - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [3]. 3.4 Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 31.98%, down 0.42; the 40 - day historical volatility is 26.76%, down 0.03 [3]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 20.46%, down 1.3; that of at - the - money put options is 20.47%, down 1.27 [3]. 3.5 Industry News - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown until January 30, 2026. The government shutdown has a greater - than - expected impact on the U.S. economy, and the labor department cannot release the non - farm payroll report, which makes the Fed's December interest - rate cut decision difficult [3]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - The hourly RSI of London gold has continued to strengthen and broken through the 90 overbought range. The key resistance level for London gold is $4100, and the strong support level is $4000. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract should focus on the range of 890 - 950 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2512 contract should focus on the range of 11000 - 11900 yuan/kilogram [3].