瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. The US government was "shut down" for 40 days, and the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased simultaneously this period, but the domestic port inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks; the molten iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. However, the positive macro - situation provided some support for the current weak market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level. For operation, short - term trading is recommended with attention to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 765.00 yuan/ton, up 4.50 yuan; the position volume was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 23 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 33,799 lots, up 1,644 lots. The DCE warehouse receipts were 800.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 102.15 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.88 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 834 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 765 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 69 yuan, down 7 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.05 US dollars/ton, down 2.65 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.20, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 832 yuan/ton. The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 3,069.00 tons, down 144.80 tons; the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) were 2,769.30 tons, down 544.80 tons [2] Industry Situation - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,624.13 tons, up 351.20 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,009.94 tons, up 160.08 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 11,130.90 tons, down 502.10 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.99 tons, down 0.36 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.96%, down 1.01%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.83 tons, down 5.92 tons. The BDI index was 2,104.00, up 41.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.42 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.365 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.15%, up 1.42%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 87.79%, down 0.80%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 tons, down 388 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.56%, down 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.41%, up 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 15.95%, down 1.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 16.77%, up 0.96% [2] Industry News - From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 3,069.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.8 tons. The total shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore were 2,548.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210.6 tons. From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2,769.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 544.8 tons; the arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 2,741.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 477.2 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,525.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60.1 tons [2]