Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The SR2501 contract is less than 2 months away from the delivery month, showing a premium over the 03 contract. It's stronger than the overseas market due to high old - sugar prices, cost support, and expected future import increases leading to a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The 25/26 season is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the contango of far - month contracts may widen as the crushing progresses. Import pressure may increase unless quota issuance is reduced or imports are restricted [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Domestic Market - Spot prices: Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, and Kunming is 5580 - 5740 yuan/ton [3] - China imported 550,000 tons of sugar in September, 150,000 tons more year - on - year. The cumulative import in the 24/25 season was 4.63 million tons, 120,000 tons less year - on - year [3] - The 25/26 season's national sugar production is estimated to increase to 1.17 million tons, with Guangxi at 680,000 tons, Yunnan at 260,000 tons, Guangdong at 60,000 tons, Inner Mongolia at 70,000 tons, and Xinjiang at 75,000 tons [3] - Zhanjiang sugar mills in the 25/26 season are expected to start crushing in late November. The first sugar mill in the 24/25 season started on November 30. The sugar cane purchase price in Guangdong may drop by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and production is expected to fall from 654,500 tons to about 600,000 tons [3] International Market - Brazil exported 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, with a daily average of 191,100 tons, a 13% increase from the previous month [4] - In the first half of October, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 3.4037 million tons of sugar cane, a 0.3% year - on - year increase. Sugar production reached 248,400 tons, a 1.25% increase. Ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a 1.17% decrease. The proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% last year [4] - ISMA estimates India's sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 3.435 million tons (including ethanol), with 340,000 tons for ethanol [4] Price and Spread Information Futures - On November 10, 2025, the closing prices and spreads of SR contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) are provided, with no price changes on that day [6] Spot - On October 30, 2025, spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, etc., and their price changes and spreads are presented [8] Basis - On November 10, 2025, the basis and its changes between Nanning, Kunming and SR contracts are given [9][11] Import Price - On November 6, 2025, the quota - in and quota - out import prices from Brazil and Thailand, and their price changes, as well as the spreads with domestic prices are shown [12]
白糖产业周报-20251110
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-11-10 11:14