芳烃橡胶早报-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For PTA, the near - end TA partial device maintenance leads to a decline in the start - up rate, polyester load remains stable, inventory accumulates, and the basis is weak. The PX domestic start - up rate rises. In the future, as the low processing fee of TA lasts long and terminal data improves, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based operation is stable, coal - based has maintenance and load reduction, the load declines, overseas devices operate stably, port inventory accumulates, and the basis weakens. In the short - term, inventory accumulation may continue, but the supply may be reduced due to low efficiency, and in the long - term, the pattern may weaken [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate rises, sales decline, inventory remains stable, demand from the polyester yarn end is stable, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, the Thai cup - rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Index Changes: From November 4 to 10, 2025, the PTA spot price increased by 30, the polyester staple fiber price decreased by 5, the naphtha cracking spread decreased by 3.15, the PX processing spread remained unchanged, the PTA processing spread remained unchanged, the polyester gross profit decreased by 27, the PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, the warehouse receipts + valid forecasts increased by 2134, the TA basis increased by 1, and the sales - to - production ratio decreased by 0.20 [2]. - Device Changes: Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million - ton device is under maintenance [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From November 4 to 10, 2025, the MEG outer - disk price decreased by 3, the MEG inner - disk price decreased by 10, the MEG East - China price decreased by 10, the MEG far - month price decreased by 13, the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 10, the MEG inner - disk cash flow (ethylene) remained unchanged, the MEG total load, coal - based MEG load, and non - coal - based load remained unchanged, and the MEG port inventory remained unchanged [2]. - Device Changes: Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device and Sinochem's 300,000 - ton device are under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From November 4 to 10, 2025, the prices of 1.4D cotton - type, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc. remained unchanged, the native staple fiber load, recycled cotton - type load, and polyester yarn start - up rate remained unchanged, the short - fiber profit and pure - polyester yarn profit remained unchanged, the cotton - polyester staple fiber price difference decreased by 25, and the viscose - polyester staple fiber price difference remained unchanged [2]. - Device Changes: There is no device maintenance information this week, and Fujian Shanli restarts, with the start - up rate increasing to 96.8% [2]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: From November 4 to 10, 2025, the US - dollar Thai standard increased by 15, the US - dollar Thai mixed increased by 5, the RMB mixed rubber increased by 30, the Shanghai whole - milk increased by 15, the Shanghai 3L increased by 50, the Thai glue remained unchanged, the Thai cup - rubber decreased by 1, the Yunnan glue remained unchanged, the Hainan glue decreased by 150, the cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged, the RU main contract increased by 15, and the NR main contract decreased by 35 [5]. - Related Index Changes: The difference between the mixed rubber and the RU main contract, the difference between the US - dollar Thai standard and the NR main contract, etc. have corresponding changes, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange RU warehouse receipts decreased by 2310 [5]. Styrene - Price Changes: From November 4 to 10, 2025, the ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, the pure benzene (East China) decreased by 40, the hydrogenated benzene (Shandong) remained unchanged, the styrene (CFR China) increased by 2, the styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 20, the styrene (South China) decreased by 10, and the EPS (East China ordinary material) remained unchanged [8]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene increased by 10, the domestic profit of EPS increased by 10, and the domestic profit of PS and ABS had corresponding changes [8].