LPG早报-20251111

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint Domestic civil LPG may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with overall peak - season expectations; the contraction of PDH profits may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high and may fall. The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to weather and US cold wave conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Information Price and Basis - Daily Price Changes: On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4377 (+3), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4455 (+5). The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong was 4630 (+130). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 3. The daily change of the basis was (-71), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 87 (+15). FEI was 494.68 (+0), and CP was 468.68 (+0.68) dollars/ton [1]. - PG Main Contract: The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the 12 - 01 month spread was 72 (-8), and the number of warehouse receipts was 4444 (+250). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil LPG at 4374; prices in Shandong were 4380 (+80), in East China 4374 (+95), and in South China 4450 (+50). The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong was 4500 (+80) [1]. - External and Internal Price Relationships: External prices fell; the internal - external relationship strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI reaching 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB was 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and freight rates were basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest value at - 73 (-6) [1]. Industry Profit and Operation - Profit Changes: The profit of PDH in Shandong decreased significantly (some plants stopped production). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated [1]. - Inventory and Operation Rate: Domestic production decreased, and factory inventories were basically flat; the arrival volume was limited, terminal sales improved, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operation rate was 75.49% (+1.6), due to Lihuayi Weiyuan operating at full capacity, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei successively stopped production [1].