广发早知道：汇总版-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping index, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides specific operation suggestions based on the market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors of each category. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The consumer sector rebounded strongly, while industrial manufacturing - related industries pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis of the main contracts was repaired. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider deploying a bull spread of put options in case of a deep decline [2][3][4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market sentiment was positive despite the short - term tightening of the capital side. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The end of the US government shutdown is expected to lead to a decline in the US dollar index, and the supply shortage drives the significant strengthening of precious metals. It is recommended to buy on dips below $4100 for gold and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [7][8][10]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market is still cold, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1950 points. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The expectation of the end of the US government shutdown eases liquidity risks and drives the rebound of copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 84000 and the resistance at 86500 [12][13][16]. - Alumina: The spot market shows regional differentiation, and the price is expected to maintain a weak shock. The reference range for the main contract is 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [16][17][18]. - Aluminum: The price is in a high - level shock, and the short - term fundamentals restrict the upward height. The main contract is expected to operate between 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton [19][20][21]. - Aluminum Alloy: The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to maintain a strong shock. The reference range for the main contract is 20400 - 21100 yuan/ton [22][23]. - Zinc: The liquidity risk mitigation expectation rises, and the price is in a high - level shock. The main contract is expected to operate between 22300 - 23000 [24][26][27]. - Tin: The market sentiment improves, and the price is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to hold long positions [32]. - Nickel: The fundamentals change little, and the macro is weak. The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 124000 [33][34]. - Stainless Steel: The macro - drive weakens, and the fundamentals still have pressure. The main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000, showing a weak shock [35][36][38]. - Lithium Carbonate: The macro - atmosphere drives the price up. The short - term fundamentals provide support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at the previous high [41][42]. - Polysilicon: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price fluctuates upward. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to go long on dips in the futures and sell put options in the options [42][43][44]. - Industrial Silicon: The spot price in some areas rises, and the price is expected to be in a low - level shock. The reference range is 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [44][45][46]. Black Metals - Steel: The supply of iron elements in the January contract is loose, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [47][48]. - Iron Ore: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [50][51][52]. - Coking Coal: The spot market is strong, but the demand for replenishment weakens. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [53][54][55]. - Coke: The cost is supported, and there is still an expectation of price increase. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [56][57][58]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The export of US soybeans is still uncertain. The domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA report on Friday [60][61][62].