Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices slightly pulled back this week, finding support from downstream centralized price fixing at the 85,000 level. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, with the fundamentals remaining stable but weak [1]. - Aluminum prices strengthened significantly, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market. Future aluminum supply and demand may remain in a tight balance, being prone to rise in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - Zinc prices moved higher this week. The price center may be difficult to decline significantly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is advisable to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of secondary production and the increase in warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin prices oscillated this week. The domestic fundamentals will maintain a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold positions at low prices near the cost line [15]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand are expected to be in a slightly loose balance in Q4, with prices expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory - reduction trend will be maintained. The upward potential will depend on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [16]. - Nickel supply decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventories continued to accumulate. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [20]. - Stainless steel fundamentals remained weak. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 4th to 10th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 284, and the LME inventory increased by 375 tons [1]. - Market Analysis: This week, the copper price slightly pulled back, and the 85,000 level obtained downstream concentrated price - fixing support. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals are stable but weak [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 4th to 10th, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 50 - 60 yuan/ton, the domestic alumina price decreased by 6 yuan/ton, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 tons [2]. - Market Analysis: Iceland's long - term reduction in electrolytic aluminum production was finalized, and the price of aluminum strengthened significantly. The future supply and demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, but the actual performance may be worse than expected [2]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 4th to 10th, the zinc price center moved higher. The domestic social inventory was volatile, and the overseas LME inventory was oscillating at a low level [5]. - Market Analysis: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened, and there is a short - term risk of price decline. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [5]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 4th to 10th, lead prices fluctuated at a high level, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons [12]. - Market Analysis: The supply of lead is gradually recovering, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week [12]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 4th to 10th, tin prices oscillated, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [15]. - Market Analysis: The supply of tin is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [15]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 4th to 10th, the basis of industrial silicon decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 75 [16]. - Market Analysis: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a slightly loose balance in Q4, and prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 4th to 10th, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 159 [16]. - Market Analysis: Affected by the expected resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory - reduction trend will be maintained [16]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 4th to 10th, nickel prices increased slightly, and the LME inventory increased by 300 tons [20]. - Market Analysis: Nickel supply decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventories continued to accumulate. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [20]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 4th to 10th, the prices of stainless steel products remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 100 yuan/ton [21]. - Market Analysis: The fundamentals of stainless steel remained weak, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21].
永安期货有色早报-20251111
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-11 01:16