集运早报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the futures market showed slight fluctuations. The EC2512 contract decreased slightly due to the expected price drop in November, while the spreads of EC2512 - EC2602 and EC2602 - EC2604 strengthened. The valuation of EC2512 is neutral, and considering the upcoming peak season and the long - term contract signing period in December, a strategy of reducing long positions is recommended. The valuation of EC2602 is harder to determine and is expected to follow the trend of EC2512 in the short term. If the peak season is realized, EC2602 may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is for the off - season, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach considering the expected greater supply pressure in April [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contracts - Contract Prices and Changes: The closing prices and price changes of multiple EC futures contracts are presented. For example, EC2512 closed at 1778.2 with a - 1.87% change, EC2602 at 1604.9 with a 0.81% change, etc. [2] - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spreads between different contract months are given, such as EC2512 - EC2504 was 612.1, showing a - 35.3 change from the previous day and - 30.8 from the previous week [2]. Spot Indexes - SCFIS: Updated weekly, as of 2025/11/10, it was 1504.80 points, with a 24.50% increase from the previous period and a - 7.92% change in the previous period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated every Friday, as of 2025/11/7, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, with a - 1.56% change from the previous period and a 7.87% change in the previous period [2]. - CCFI: Updated every Friday, as of 2025/11/7, it was 1366.85 points, with a 3.25% change from the previous period and a 2.37% change in the previous period [2]. - NCFI: Updated every Friday, as of 2025/11/7, it was 911.73 points, with a - 5.58% change from the previous period and a 17.43% change in the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - 45th Week: The average landed price was about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk) [2]. - 46th Week: The average landed price was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the disk) [2]. - Second Half of November: The pressure is expected to increase, and the cargo volume may recover. The quoted price is between 2365 - 2950 US dollars, but MSK opened at 2250 US dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period), and other shipping companies are expected to lower their quotes this week. There may also be a price increase announcement for December [2]. News - Gaza Cease - fire: As of November 10, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas was in its second month, but the second - stage negotiation was still "far off". The implementation of the agreement was full of setbacks, and there were concerns that the cease - fire might be terminated [3]. - Shipping Policy: Starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China will suspend the implementation of relevant policies on charging special port fees for US ships for one year in synchronization with the US suspension of the final measures of the 301 investigation on China's maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries [3]. - Index Delay: The XSI - C index will be delayed by three working days for release [4]