大越期货沪铜早报-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The supply side of copper is disrupted with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policies being loosened. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared to the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper market is considered neutral based on fundamentals. The spot price is 86,470 with a basis of -10, indicating a discount to the futures price, also neutral. Copper inventories increased on November 10, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased from last week. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - trending, and the main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing. Overall, it is expected that copper prices will oscillate at a high level due to inventory increases and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply side has disruptions, smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is loosened, and China's manufacturing PMI in October is 49.0%, neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 86,470, basis is -10, discount to futures, neutral [2]. - Inventory: On November 10, copper inventory increased by 375 to 136,275 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons from last week, neutral [2]. - Disk: Closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - trending, bullish [2]. - Main Positions: Main net positions are long but long positions are decreasing, bullish [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices will oscillate at a high level due to inventory increases and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: Global policy easing [3]. - 利空: Trade war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance data from 2018 - 2024 [22]. Other Information - Bonded area inventory is rising from a low level [14]. - Processing fees are falling [16].