沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 沪镍: The outer market rebounds and then falls, with the 20 - day moving average exerting strong pressure. The nickel ore price is firm, while the nickel - iron price continues to decline. Stainless steel inventory rises slightly. New nickel production capacity is coming on - stream, and there is also some production cut. Short - term output may decline, but the medium - to - long - term supply is strong. The overall boost from the new energy vehicle industry is limited. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2512 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly and test cost support [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless steel price remains stable. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, and the ocean freight is stable, while the nickel - iron price drops, causing the cost line to loosen further. Stainless steel inventory rises slightly. The stainless steel 2512 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 多空因素 - 利多因素: The ore price is firm, providing cost - line support; there is new production capacity coming on - stream and some production cuts, so short - term output may decline [7]. - 利空因素: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new demand growth point, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; both domestic and overseas inventories continue to accumulate [7]. 基差 - 沪镍 - The previous trading day's Shanghai spot - Shanghai nickel basis was 1520 [9]. 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 | Type | 11 - 10 Price | 11 - 7 Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪镍主力 | 119440 | 119440 | - 310 | | 伦镍电 | 15100 | 15020 | 80 | | 不锈钢主力 | 12565 | 12565 | - 25 | | SMM1电解镍 | 120900 | 120900 | 400 | | 1金川镍 | 122425 | 122425 | 500 | | 1进口镍 | 119825 | 119825 | 350 | | 镍豆 | 121875 | 121875 | 350 | | 冷卷304*2B（无锡） | 13550 | 13550 | 0 | | 冷卷304*2B（佛山） | 13700 | 13700 | 0 | | 冷卷304*2B（杭州） | 13450 | 13450 | 0 | | 冷卷304*2B（上海） | 13500 | 13500 | 0 | [12] 镍仓单、库存 - As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37187 tons, of which the futures inventory was 32634 tons, an increase of 436 tons and 1246 tons respectively. | Type | 11 - 10 Inventory | 11 - 7 Inventory | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦镍 | 253404 | 253104 | 300 | | 沪镍（仓单） | 32533 | 32634 | - 101 | | 总库存 | 285937 | 285738 | 199 | [14][15] 不锈钢仓单、库存 - On November 7, the Wuxi inventory was 599,000 tons, the Foshan inventory was 310,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,034,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 639,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 124,000 tons. | Type | 11 - 10 Inventory | 11 - 7 Inventory | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 不锈钢仓单 | 72031 | 72091 | - 60 | [19][20] 镍矿、镍铁价格 | Type | Grade | 11 - 10 Price | 11 - 7 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 红土镍矿CIF | Ni1.5% | 58 | 58 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | 红土镍矿CIF | Ni0.9% | 30 | 30 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | 海运费 菲律宾 - 连云港 | | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | 海运费 菲律宾 - 天津港 | | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | 湿吨 高镍 | 8 - 12 | 914.5 | 916.5 | - 2 | CNY/nickel point | | 湿吨 低镍 | 2以下 | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | CNY/ton | [24] 不锈钢生产成本 | Type | Cost | | --- | --- | | 传统成本 | 12739 | | 废钢生产成本 | 12893 | | 低镍+纯镍成本 | 16532 | [26] 镍进口成本测算 - The converted import price is 121,082 CNY/ton [30].