大越期货纯碱早报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. Short - term, it is expected to move in a range [2][5]. - The downstream glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash. However, since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass downstream has weakened [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level, and the second - phase of Yuanxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is expected to be abundant. There are supply disturbances in downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high level, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,170 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,226 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 56 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash inventory in plants is 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term [2]. 3.2 Impact Factors Summary - Positive Factors: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,210 yuan/ton | 1,155 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan | | Current Value | 1,226 yuan/ton | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 56 yuan | | Change Rate | 1.32% | 1.30% | 1.82% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production of soda ash is 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [21]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% [27]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in plants is 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][34]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].