大越期货沪铝早报-20251111

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market, along with variable short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a discount to futures, which is bearish. The inventory situation is neutral, the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - running 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, both being bullish. In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry, and with improved macro sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to be strong [2]. - There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand. Bullish factors include capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, geopolitical disturbances affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts. Bearish factors are the poor global economic outlook, high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, a soft real - estate market, and variable short - term macro sentiment [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 21490, basis is - 235, showing a discount to futures, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory decreased by 239 tons to 113335 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [2]. - Price Trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward - running, which is bullish [2]. - Main Positions: The main net positions are long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry, and with improved macro sentiment, aluminum prices will be strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances affect Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish Factors: The global economic outlook is poor, high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption, and the export tax rebates for aluminum products are cancelled [3]. Daily汇总 - Spot Prices: Shanghai's yesterday's spot price was 70770, down 375; Southern Storage's was 70690, down 450; and Yangtze River's today's price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 425 to 74750; SHFE inventory increased by 29728 to 136300 (weekly) [4]. 供需平衡 - China's annual aluminum supply - demand balance shows that from 2018 - 2023, there was a supply shortage in most years, except for a 1.3 - million - ton surplus in 2020. In 2024, it is expected to have a 15 - million - ton surplus [23].