棉花早报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market are neutral. The new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the production may be lower than previously estimated. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10%. The short - term support level for the futures main contract 01 is around 13,500, and it is expected to continue with a volatile and bullish trend [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the report 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton year. ICAC's November report shows a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. USDA's September report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's November forecast for the 2025/26 year shows production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [5]. - Expected Situation: New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, with possible lower production than previously estimated. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10%. The short - term support level for the futures main contract 01 is around 13,500, and it is expected to continue with a volatile and bullish trend [6]. - Base Difference: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,844, and the base difference is 1264 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [7]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's November 2025/26 year forecast for ending inventory is 8.45 million tons, which is a bearish signal [7]. - Market Trends: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [7]. - Main Positions: The positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, and the main trend is bearish [7]. - Bullish Factors: The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the commercial inventory is lower year - on - year. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10% [8]. - Bearish Factors: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton is about to come onto the market, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the report 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September): The total global production in the 2025/26 year is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [15][16]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 2025/26 year, global production is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%); global trade volume is 0.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with narrower year - on - year fluctuations [17]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: For the 2025/26 year, the estimated production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [19]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the report