白糖早报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting a supply surplus. In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar market is relatively resistant to decline compared to the foreign sugar market, and the near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones, which may be related to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar trends is unsustainable. For the approaching 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels on the 05 contract [5][8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow has raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expects a 277,000 - ton surplus, while ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [5]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 255 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - Main Position: The net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - Expectation: Recently, foreign sugar prices have been falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar has been relatively resistant to decline. The near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - term ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. For the approaching 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels on the 05 contract [5][8]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX expects a 277,000 - ton surplus, Czarnikow predicts a 620,000 - ton surplus (another mention is 750,000 tons), Datagro expects a 153,000 - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420,000 - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 40,000 - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 115,000 - ton surplus [35]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, the sugar production is expected to be 1.12 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [37]. - Import Costs: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5,086 yuan per ton. In mid - June 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 16.08 cents per pound, and the import cost was between 5,679 - 5,708 yuan per ton [43]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.