焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-11）-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, safety inspections and strict control of over - production lead to a continuous tight supply. The improvement in coke prices boosts market confidence, and the procurement demand from downstream and middlemen has slightly increased. However, due to poor profits, downstream is starting to be cautious about some over - priced coal types. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will remain stable [2]. - For coke, after the third round of price increase, the loss of coke enterprises has slightly eased, and the inventory is at a low level. But most coke enterprises are on the verge of profit and loss, and there is an intention to expand production cuts. The supply pattern remains tight in the short term. The demand from downstream steel mills has decreased slightly, which suppresses the further increase of coke prices. It is expected that the short - term coke price will remain stable [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is tight, downstream demand has a slight recovery, but there is caution about over - priced coal; bullish [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1430, basis is 164.5, spot premium over futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [2]. - Main position: Net long position of main coking coal contract, long position decreasing; bullish [2]. - Expectation: Downstream demand is good, but steel mill profits are low and iron - water output is falling, so it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [2]. Coke - Fundamental: After the price increase, the loss has eased, inventory is low, but profit issues may lead to production cuts, supply remains tight; bullish [6]. - Basis: Spot price is 1680, basis is - 63.5, spot discount to futures; bearish [6]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [6]. - Main position: Net short position of main coke contract, short position increasing; bearish [6]. - Expectation: Supply is stable with profit repair, low inventory supports the price, but downstream demand is weakening, so it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [6]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in iron - water production, difficult to increase supply [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in iron - water production and simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills, partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Prices - On November 10 (17:30), most port metallurgical coke prices showed a downward trend, with price drops ranging from 20 to 40 [9]. - On November 10 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal varied by type and port, and the price of 1/3 coking coal (GJ) at Caofeidian Port increased by 110 [10]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44].