Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which has put pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8372, and the basis is 144, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. This is a bearish factor [2]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8714, and the basis is 24, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. This is a neutral factor [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. This is a bullish factor [3]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The same MPOB report situation as above. Subsequently, as it enters the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9881, and the basis is 294, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. This is a bearish factor [4]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish Factors: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is also the palm oil tremor season [5]. - Bearish Factors: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of edible oils are relatively loose [5].
大越期货油脂早报-20251111
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-11 02:20